@Article{BrancoAlmeFran:2022:EnSoCo,
               author = "Branco, Teule Lemos and Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de and 
                         Francisco, Cristiane Nunes",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         Fluminense (UFF)}",
                title = "Modelagem Dinamica Espacial das Mudancas de Uso e Cobertura da 
                         Terra na Regiao Hidrografica da Baia da Ilha Grande-RJ: um Enfoque 
                         Sobre Comunidades Tradicionais e Unidades de Conservacao",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Cartografia",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "74",
               number = "1",
                pages = "137--158",
                month = "Jan.",
             keywords = "Landscape Dynamics, Protected Areas, Public Policies.",
             abstract = "This work is committed to analyze processes of land use and land 
                         cover change in the Ilha Grande Bay Watershed, located in Rio de 
                         Janeiro State, southeast of Brazil, from 2013 to 2018, by means of 
                         spatial dynamic modeling, with a focus on the role of native 
                         communities and conservation units. For this purpose, the Dinamica 
                         EGO modeling platform was used, which is designed to simulate land 
                         use and land cover change (LUCC) employing the Bayesian weights of 
                         evidence method for parameterization and relying on the cellular 
                         automata paradigm. Spatio-temporal analyses of LUCC were carried 
                         out for twelve sub-watersheds, which are known as planning 
                         hydrological units in Brazil, laying emphasis on the transition 
                         rates and weights assigned to the native communities and 
                         conservation units. In the Fully Protected Conservation Units, a 
                         trend of negative weights assigned to deforestation and 
                         urbanization transitions was observed. On the other hand, the 
                         Sustainable Use Conservation Units revealed a great pressure on 
                         the natural coastal environments, where human occupation is 
                         prevailing. The native communities present peculiar dynamics 
                         within their territories, which mostly prevent urbanization 
                         processes to occur. The adopted Bayesian method was able to 
                         describe and simulate LUCC in the study area, and its results may 
                         support related management initiatives. The weights assigned to 
                         the conservation units unravel their behavior with respect to the 
                         concerned transitions, and the simulation results yielded 
                         satisfactory Fuzzy Similarity Indices. This work enabled the 
                         understanding of dynamics occurred within conservation units and 
                         native communities, meant to help the formulation of guidelines 
                         for land and environmental planning.",
                  doi = "10.14393/rbcv74n1-59436",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.14393/rbcv74n1-59436",
                 issn = "0560-4613 and 1808-0936",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "banco_2022.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "08 maio 2024"
}